Saturday, January 30, 2016

Investigating a 3 Man Midfield

Last Sunday's win over Arsenal featured an interesting tactical adaptation from Guus Hiddink. The 4-2-3-1 has been Chelsea's default formation since Jose Mourinho's second return 3 years ago. It was very successful, allowing Chelsea to dominate the midfield, dictate the tempo of matches and play both an attacking, proactive game as well as Mourinho's lockdown defensive style.

But this season the double pivot specifically has fallen apart. The Fabregas-Matic patnership that was so reliable last season has seemingly disintegrated. Mourinho showed a deep loyalty to the double pivot, almost to a fault. 

Hiddink too has stuck with it since taking over, at least nominally. The game against Arsenal, however, saw Hiddink make something of a departure from the 4-2-3-1, in practice. He lined up Mikel and Matic, both fairly defensive midfielders, in the double pivot, and Fabregas forward, in the no. 10 position. But it was clear that, with Oscar on the left wing and Willian on the right, Fabregas would not spend all of his time sitting in the 10 space. Both Oscar and Willian are centrally focused players, dropping off the wings and into the half-spaces, and even the center.

Fabregas floated around the field, often dropping deep to pick up the ball and control possession. He also pushed the ball up the field, mainly in the half spaces, picking out through balls for the wings and Costa in the center.

Fabregas' positioning meant that Chelsea was effectively playing a 4-3-2-1, or even a 4-2-2-1, with Cesc in a completely free role.

Here you can see Fabregas dropping deep, in between the pivot, to pick up the ball from John Terry.
In the above photo, however, Fabregas has the ball, higher up the field, running at Arsenal's backline.
You can see the midfield triangle above clearly. Matic has been pressing higher up the field, while Mikel sits in front of the backline. Oscar and Willian have both moved onto the wings. This is the 4-3-3 that Chelsea often defended in.

This shift towards a 4-3-3 got me thinking about how a 3 man midfield could work tactically. I have divided the 3 man midfield into three seperate roles, each playing off the other and covering for the others strengths or weaknesses. I will try to both describe what each role would do, and what players on Chelsea's squad could fit into each.

Playmaker
This is the Fabregas role from the Arsenal game. The playmaker would be fairly free positionally. He could come deep and play long balls from the back, or sit in the middle and control possession and slow the game, or float in the half-spaces, picking out passes for the wingers and striker.

This player needs to be comfortable on the ball, but not selfish. He must be able to start attacks and distribute possession, creating chances for others more than for himself. He also needs to have positional awareness, knowing how to be open, and where to be to play a one-two.

There are really only two players on Chelsea's roster (youth and loan system withstanding) that could play this role. The most obvious is Fabregas, and since I discussed his play above, I won't go into it again.

But another interesting option is Eden Hazard. Hazard almost always lines up on the left wing, but, like Oscar and Willian played against Arsenal, rarely stays there. Hazard is a sort of "false 10", a winger who ends up in the 10 position. He is not primarily a scorer, picking up only 14 goals in the Premier League last season. 

He does have an uncanny ability to draw defense's attention, creating chances for other by virtue of his own potency. One of the primary features of Chelsea games over the past two seasons have been team's attempts to neutralize Hazard, and thereby Chelsea's offense, by hacking him down. Given his fantastic dribbling ability and good passing, he could also play as a playmaker.

While Fabregas would offer more of a deep lying option, Hazard could provide some flavor and operate as a true no. 10. With his future at the club in doubt, it is unlikely that Hiddink experiment's with his role, but it would be an interesting option.

Box-to-Box Midfielder
This is the role we saw Matic play against Arsenal, although he isn't the only player on Chelsea who could do so.

A box to box midfielder is a player who is tasked with both offensive and defensive duties. It is a role straight out of the 4-4-2, where the two central midfielders had to have the technical and physical ability to defend in their own half and then get back up field to help lead attacks in the opponents half. 


Given it's nature, it is a demanding physical role. The player has to have the stamina and endurance to run for 90 minutes, up and down the field, ceaselessly. He also has to be disciplined defensively, and skilled offensively.

The most famous recent examples of this type of player are Yaya Toure, Arturo Vidal, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard.

Matic is the most obvious fit. He is a physical specimen, driving up and down the field. His defensive ability is well known: it was his work that protected Chelsea's backline for most of the previous season and a half, and when he fell out of form to start this season, the defense also collapsed.

He is also an underrated offensive player, especially given Fabregas' prominence on offense. But Matic often contributes, especially in terms of retaining possession for us. He also a cannon of a leg, seen clearly here and here.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek is tailor made for this role. He too is physically gifted, and has numerous offensive skills. He has been Matic's understudy for the past year, learning how to play defense, as well, saying that Matic has inspired him to become more well-rounded.

Oscar is also an intriguing option. While he almost always plays as a no. 10, he has all of the qualities to be a box-to-box player. When Mourinho returned to Chelsea three years ago, he decided to make Oscar the starter, over the fan favorite Juan Mata, because Oscar tracked back more often, and was just simply better at defense than Mata, who rarely tried to defend.

He often covers for Fabregas, when the Spaniard roams out of position, and also goes deep to pick up the ball.

He is a proven offensive talent, showing an ability to score and create chances. Since he normally plays in the 10 spot, Hiddink wouldn't need to change formation, on paper, to play more of a 3 man midfield; he could stick to a 4-2-3-1.

Defender
This midfielder simply sits in front of the backline. On occasion he will push out of midfield to regain possession or press a vulnerable player, but he will mostly protect the backline. With Terry, Ivanovic and Cahill all on the wrong side of 30, and their bodies showing it, having a player who can keep the space in front of the backline small, and drop into the backline situationally to be a 5th defender, can be very important.

Mikel is in reality the only player who can naturally do this on the squad right now. He has little attacking interesting, scoring just one goal in for us since his arrival in 2006. 

Against Arsenal he was crucial to Hiddink's game plan. He drifted to the right side, helping Ivanovic, who Arsenal were trying to isolate and exploit. He also stopped several of Arsenal's counter, both by successful tackles and by unsuccessful ones that threw off Walcott and Ozil.

Matic could play this on occasion, particularly in situations where Chelsea have gone down a man, or are trying to ice a game. But he simply wouldn't be as effective in this role as he would be elsewhere.

Conclusion
These three positions would be effective playing off each other. The playmaker wouldn't need to worry about defense, since the defensive midfielder and box-to-box would be back. The defender wouldn't need to contribute offensively except on isolated situations, since both of the others will run the offense.

But Hiddink isn't confined to these three. Given the number of players who could potentially be box-to-box midfielders, there isn't a reason why he couldn't line up Oscar, Matic and Fabregas. I think that's actually the most interesting combination, given that all three are strong going forward, and Oscar and Matic could cover Fabregas' lack of defensive skill and positioning. 

With the top 4 gone, and the likelihood of losing to PSG in the first round of the Champions League high, Hiddink might be interested in experimenting with lineups. Lets hope that whatever he does includes youths.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Chelsea vs. Watford Match Analysis

Chelsea came into this match, Guus Hiddink’s first as interim manager, needing a win to stay relevant in the European race. Watford was on a four game winning streak, including a 3-0 win over Liverpool. Despite sitting just a point off the Europa League, they were getting no credit, mainly because of Leicester’s phenomenal season. Watford came in with a point to prove, that they were able to tangle with the best teams in the league.

Lineups


Eden Hazard started the game on the bench, due to the hip injury he picked up the previous Monday at Leicester. Otherwise Chelsea lined up much the same as they had under Jose Mourinho, dispelling some hopes that Hiddink would incorporate young players immediately.
Watford set up in the normal 4-4-2, similar to how Arrigo Sacchi’s Milan teams used to play. They were very compact, forcing Chelsea to attack through the wings, and the midfield pressed when the Blues tried to advance down the middle, shutting down the central passing lanes.
Deeny and Ighalo played as twin strikers, with Deeny dropping into the space between lines to facilitate attacks. Ighalo, on the other hand, pushed Terry and Cahill backwards with his runs in behind, opening room for Deeny, Watson and Capoue to operate.

Chelsea Play Down the Right, Fullbacks Push High
The vast majority of Chelsea’s attacking play in the first half came down the right. Without Hazard on the left demanding possession, the offense naturally shifted towards Willian, one of the few Chelsea players playing well this season.

Willian and Oscar dominated possession, playing off each other  mostly in the right halfspace. This left both Fabregas and Pedro out of play; Pedro had just 49 touches, compared to Oscar’s 60 and Willian’s 77.
Fabregas was also notably absent, never making an offensive impact and leaving the defense exposed on numerous occasions. Hiddink took him off at half time for John Obi Mikel, but you could say that the disappointing performance wasn’t his fault. He simply didn’t have enough of the ball, a rather important factor for a ball-dominant playmaker.
The attacking 3 of Chelsea’s midfield played narrow, as they always do, with both Willian and Pedro dropping inside to operate in the halfspaces more than on the wings. This left open space on the wings, which Ivanovic and Azpilicueta pushed into.




You can see in the above photo that even waiting for the second half to start, Azpilicueta and Ivanovic are pushing high, not keeping a flat line with Terry and Cahill. While this helped start Chelsea’s offense by creating overlaps, it left the two central defenders isolated.

In the video, the left wing is wide open, with Pedro tucking inside. This gives Azpilicueta space to run into. The overlap creates a chance, but no one is in the box to get on the end of his cross.
When Hazard came on in the second half, play shifted to be more balanced. There was still plenty of room for Azpilicueta to get forward, but Hazard held more of the ball, testing Watford’s right. It was one of his trademark in-cutting runs that drew the penalty that *should have* won Chelsea the game.


Watford Take Advantage of Isolated Centerbacks
Watford’s compact 4-4-2 played into Chelsea’s strategy of overlapping fullbacks, by forcing the ball out onto the wings and halfspaces. But the two striker front line also demolished Terry and Cahill, isolated and often playing much higher than they were comfortable with.
Arrigo Sacchi’s great Milan team also used two strikers, the fantastic duo Marco Van Basten and Ruud Gullit. Gullit often dropped behind Basten, transforming the 4-4-2 into a 4-4-1-1. Gullit would play more of a creating role, while Basten would act as a traditional number nine, running in behind and fighting with the center backs.
Deeny and Ighalo mirrored those roles against Chelsea. Deeny played as Gullit did, dropping off the front line and into the space between lines. This allowed him to track back better, keeping Watford defensively stout, and to pick up the ball and create an attack.
Ighalo pushed the center backs towards their own goal with his runs behind. This separated them even more from the high fullbacks, leaving Chelsea open and vulnerable.



Double Pivot Fails to Protect
Chelsea’s double pivot did little to abate the pressure. Fabregas was habitually drawn out of position, leaving Matic alone to contend with Deeny, Capoue and Watson. Matic as well often foolishly pressed hard, leaving tons of open space in front of Cahill and Terry.


Hiddink sought to solve the problem by bringing on John Obi Mikel for Fabregas at halftime. But Mikel didn’t solve the problems. He strayed out of position just as much as Fabregas did, and failed to provide the offense that Fabregas could have.

The constant midfield problems Chelsea have faced this season raises the question of dropping the pivot. The combination of midfielders hasn’t helped: Fabregas-Matic, Fabregas-Mikel, Mikel-Matic and Matic-Ramires have all been too porous.
This game showed how the lack of midfield strength kills Chelsea’s backline. Watford exploited the open space time and again to create chances.

Conclusion
Watford left happy, having proven that they can contend with the top teams in the league, on the road. Quique Sanchez Flores set his side up brilliantly, and the players executed the game plan well.
Chelsea, on the other hand, will be very disappointed. Although Costa scored two goals, signaling a possible return of good form for him, Oscar missed a potential game winning penalty in the 80th minute, and the overall performance was shaky. They dropped two points at home, two points they couldn’t afford to lose, and didn’t even look very confident doing it. It is clear that Hiddink still has his work cut out for him.