Best Matches of Copa America Centenario: Group Stage

The celebratory 100th Copa America starts on Friday, and although it won't be as intense as the Euro's (starting next week), it should promise to be interesting at the least. And while Neymar isn't making the trip, many other big stars, including Suarez, Messi and Aguero will be at the tournament. Teams, particularly the South Americans, may not see the Centenario as a must win deal, but they do see it as a potentially nice trophy (especially Argentina, who can't be picky after 23 years without a senior trophy).

The three weeks of the group stage are packed with interesting games, and as the tournament gets going and we see how teams are playing, there could be more and more. I'm looking at what *right now* are the best games of the group stage.

USA v. Colombia (June 3rd, 9:30)
The opening match of the tournament, in Santa Clara. USA have tons to prove, as the hosts and in general. Obviously, as host nation, USA wants to put out a good showing, and prove to the South Americans that they can run with real teams. This tournament also provides a good chance to build on the success of the 2014 World Cup, when the US barely lost in the Round of 16, 2-1 to Belgium in extra time.

For Jurgen Klinsmann though, this tournament provides a chance to relieve some pressure. Between a fourth place finish at the Gold Cup last summer, losing the chance to automatically qualify for the Confederations Cup, a major goal for Klinsmann, and then a loss in the Confed Cup playoff to Mexico, and then struggles in the early stages of World Cup qualifying, and then the failure of the U-23 team to qualify for the Olympics, 2015-16 has not been a great year for Klinsmann. If the US could make a run in this tournament, and maybe even win it, then Klinsmann would find some breathing room. Winning the first game in a somewhat tough group (with Costa Rica and Paraguay) would be a massive step in the right direction.

Colombia is also looking to build on recent success. Two quarterfinal places, in the World Cup and then last summer's Copa America, vaulted Colombia back into the international spotlight. Although Falcao, Jackson Martinez and several other veterans will be out, Colombia will still have David Ospina in goal and James Rodriguez, Juan Cuadrado and Carlos Bacca in the field. They won't be lacking in talent.

This should be an interesting game tactically and individually. It will be intriguing to see how the US copes with Colombia's outstanding individual talent.

Mexico v. Uruguay (June 5th, 8:00)
This match pits the two front runners in Group C. Mexico, with the easiest travel schedule in the tournament, will be looking to redeem themselves from a bad appearance at Copa America last summer. Juan Carlos Osorio was named manager in October, and this is his first chance to succeed with Mexico on the national stage.

Uruguay, on the other hand, has sent their A-squad. Diego Godin, Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani will all be there.

Both teams will want to beat their main rival for the group in this first game, and get out to a good start. Definite must watch.

Argentina v. Chile (June 6th, 10:00)
Easily the best match of the group stage. A rematch of last year's Copa America final, you can make the case these teams are the best in South America right now. Both teams have also brought the big boys. Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sanchez, Claudio Bravo and Charles Aranguiz will all be playing for Chile. Argentina, on the other hand, will have one of the scariest attacking lineups in the world: Gonzalo Higuain, Sergio Aguero, Angel Di Maria and one Lionel Messi. Although they have defensive concerns, Argentina should be thrilling going forward at least.

This match is not just the most interesting individually, its the most interesting tactical battle. Chile, with the Biesla-esque tactics, is always fun to watch. How Tata Martino meshes all of Argentina's talent, where he places Messi, and whether he tries to adopt the higher, more aggressive system that Messi has thrived under at Barcelona are all issues Martino needs to deal with. This tournament should give him good preparation to experiment, looking forward to the 2018 World Cup.

Honorable Mentions
USA v. Costa Rica (June 7th, 8:00), Argentina v. Panama (June 10th, 9:30) and Colombia v. Costa Rica (June 11th, 9:00) are all interesting matches. Costa Rica will be looking to prove that their performance at the World Cup in 2014 was not a fluke, and Panama will be looking to build on a strong 3rd place at last summer's Gold Cup. Some matches may be fun blowouts, like several of Brazil's potential games, and some may end up close (Brazil v. Peru, Mexico v. Venezula).

One last mention for the potential quarterfinal draws. If Mexico and Uruguay come out of Group C, and Chile and Argentina from Group D, then we are facing some fantastic quarterfinals. We'll see any combination of Mexico/Uruguay v. Chile/Argentina in the quarterfinals, and both will be amazing. Something to look forward to there.

Overall, I'm very excited for this tournament. As a soccer fan, it's a top to bottom interesting tournament. With all the major South American teams, and most of them trying, in it, as well as good CONCACAF teams, it won't be a joke.

As an American, I'm pumped. This is a great chance for players to prove themselves (looking at you, Christian Pulisic). It's a great chance for the team overall to prove themselves. Great chance for Jurgen to relive pressure. Great chance to prep for the Confederations Cup World Cup in 2018. Great chance to finally nail down a system that works, and a rough XI that fits into it. Good chance to test ourselves against big teams, something we'll miss since the whole Gold Cup thing didn't work out.

It should be a fun sideshow to the Euro's, but it'll be more than just a sideshow. This is gonna be a fun summer of soccer.

2014 Champions League Final: Match Analysis

In light of the upcoming La Liga match Champions League final/Madrid derby, I decided to go back and rewatch the 2014 CL final between the same two teams. It was a fascinating match, with two great managers (Simeone for Atleti, Ancelotti for Real) facing off. Although Real ended up winning 4-1, the game was infinetly closer than the scoreline indicates. Real dominated much of the game, controlling the ball and creating more and more chances as the game went on. Atleti, however, gave a masterclass in defensive discipline, and until they ran out of energy kept Real fairly frustrated.

Lineups

Real was without their normal pivot, Xabi Alonso, and Sami Khedira was in doubt after being out for half of the season. Khedira was able to make it back into the lineup, although he only played the first hour. Ancelotti lined Real up in a 4-3-3, with Khedira in the pivot. Angel Di Maria and Luka Modric played on either side of him, although neither stayed close to Khedira. Both, but especially ADM, drifted outside, to balance the inward movements of Real's wingers, Ronaldo and Bale.

Atleti set up in their classic 4-4-2. Their defense, and change to 4-5-1 later, will be discussed below. Diego Costa, in doubt because of a hamstring injury, insisted on playing. Costa only made the first 10 minutes however, costing his team a sub that was desperately needed later in the game.

Real's Buildup
Ancelotti made some interesting tweaks to Real's normal 4-3-3. Without Alonso to stabilize possession, Ancelotti went for a more aggressive, direct approach. Many times either Sergio Ramos or Raphael Varane would play long balls directly to one of the attacking 3, bypassing the midfield. This allowed Real to go over Atleti's strong midfield presence, and with all 3 forwards skilled in the air, it was a somewhat effective strategy.

The midfield 3 were also very uncompact in possession. Both Modric and Di Maria pushed out wide. This balanced the inward movements of Bale and particularly, on Di Maria's side, Ronaldo. The strategy seemed to play into Atleti's hands, as they seek to force teams away from the middle, but Real used wing overloads to break into the center, especially in the final third.

Real also played with asymmetric fullbacks for the first hour of the game. Coentrao on the left pushed very high up the field, while Carvajal stayed deeper, although he did contribute to the offense.

What resulted from the movement on the left was an interesting triangle forming. Ronaldo made runs into midfield, playing mostly in the half space, although he had the positional freedom to roam the field at large. Coentrao pushed high, filling the wing. Di Maria dropped back to fill in Coentrao's open space at full back, while still playing a vital role in the build up.

Here you can see the triangle clearly. Di Maria is deep, Ronaldo is in midfield, and Coentrao is in the attacking line.

There you can see the benefits of the triangle. It created an overload, numerical and qualitative, on the left side, and was difficult for Atleti to deal with.

Much of Real's game up was based on giving Ronaldo, and Bale to a lesser extent, a free role, to float around the field and stay in a dangerous position. The movements of the midfielders, fullbacks and Benzema were all supposed to balance out Ronaldo's free role. Even Bale played around Ronaldo, staying to the wing more when Ronaldo drifted over to the center and right half space.

Atleti's Defense

I wrote a fairly in depth analysis of Atleti's defense in my analysis of their loss at Barcelona this season, so take a look at that for more. But Simeone has changed his defense slightly in the past two years, so its worth taking a look at the differences in this game.

Atleti was much more passive two years ago, in defense, then they are now. Against Barcelona, and against Bayern in the Champions League semifinal this year, Atleti pressed higher up the field, forcing the possession based team backwards and using pressure to disrupt their buildup.

In this game, however, Atleti very much sat in their own half and allowed Real to have the ball. Even their, Atleti was passive, rarely putting pressure on the ball unless it came into midfield. However, their compact 4-4-2 and shifts across the field kept Real out of the middle.

In that clip, Atleti shift with the ball, forcing it to the wings and out of the center. Real pass around the perimeter of Atleti's defense, with Atleti putting little pressure on the ball. It's only when Di Maria tries to dribble through the center does Atleti close him down. Three players collapse on him, forcing a bad pass and a turnover.

Atleti also put on a good counterpress, especially early in the second half when they were trying to counter Real's speed. This hints at Simeone's later developments, where we've seen Atleti ramp up the pressure in recent games.

Later in the game, after Atleti had scored, Real gained more possession and increasingly put offensive pressure on Atleti. Simeone was concerned with Real's penetration of the center, especially from Di Maria's runs, and shifted from a 4-4-2 to a 4-5-1. Adrian, Costa's replacement, dropped onto the wing of the midfield.

While the change helped Atleti regain control of the center and keep Real out of dangerous zones, Atleti lost any semblance of pressure on the ball. With only one forward, Atleti had no access to the ball, and afforded Ramos and Varane, as well as the fullbacks, far too much time to pick out long direct passes. This increased passivity allowed Real to pin Atleti back and back, and even with Atleti, masters of last ditch defending, a team can very rarely hold on by a thread for as long as Atleti needed too.

Di Maria's Increasing Role

Di Maria became more and more important to Real as the game went on. In the initial lineup, he played very well in the fullback/deep playmaker slot he fell into with Coentrao going forward. With Atleti not pressuring him, Di Maria was free to playmake and create chances on and off the ball for the attackers. 

Atleti also struggled to deal with Di Maria's running ability on the ball. He time and time again cut through Atleti's lines, breaking into the center of the field, like below.

Di Maria was also Real's primary threat on the counter. When they countered, Ronaldo, Benzema and Bale were all fairly central, usually with the two wingers in the half spaces. It was a very well structured counter, balanced across the field. Di Maria usually led the counter, with the ball, from the wing. He is one of the few players in the world who can beat Atleti's superb 1 v. 1 defenders, and thus was able to break Atleti's counterpress and break Real out onto a counterattack.

Bale's goal, and what was eventually the game winner, came off a Di Maria counter attack. ADM dribbles past three Atleti players, a sight rarely seen, before taking a shot. Courtois saves easily, although he probably could have done better to knock it out of the danger area. Bale swoops in and head the rebound in, to win Real the decima.

Ancelotti's Subs

After an hour Ancelotti made some key substitutions. He brought off Khedira, partially out of concerns for aggravating his injury, and Coentrao for Isco and Marcelo, respectively.

Isco was a more attack minded player, reflecting the flow of the game. By that point, Atleti had failed to mount a serious counter for at least 10 minutes, and Real were in complete control. Ancelotti could afford to sacrifice Khedira, a defensive pivot, or Isco, more a number 10. The change allowed Real to create better chances in possession.

Marcelo's entrance was interesting as well. He played almost as an inverted fullback (like we've seen Phillip Lahm do under Pep at Bayern), as you can see in the clip below. He played in the halfspace, opening room on the wing for Di Maria.

Ancelotti still used a sort of triangle, as he had with Coentrao. It changed slightly, however, with Ronaldo still in midfield. Marcelo, as we've seen, also moved into midfield, a bit deeper than Ronaldo, while Di Maria shifted onto the wing. This triangle was, as it had been, the main focus of Real's build up, and gave both Di Maria and Ronaldo freedom to create.

In the above clip, you can see how the triangle allowed each player to play off the other. Atleti was very focused on Ronaldo, and when the ball is moved into him he wisely quickly plays it back out onto the wing. Di Maria and Marcelo make complementary runs, opening space for the other to dribble into.

Conclusion

In the end, Atleti simply ran out of gas and heart. Ramos' 93 minute equalizer was killer, a stab in the heart for Simeone's team. Despite the massive letdown, though, Atleti managed to keep even with Real for the first extra time period. However, with no subs left and several players struggling with fatigue, Atleti couldn't hold on. Real had fresher legs, and their counter attacks ended the game. After Bale scored, Atleti just lost all heart. Real's third goal was the most open I've ever seen Atleti, with almost no one moving to close down Marcelo as he dribbled down the middle of the field.

It was a fantastic game, and provides interesting context for this one. Hopefully Simeone v. Zidane will be as intriguing as Simeone v. Ancelotti was. 

Lacking a System: Thoughts on Chelsea-Sunderland

Another weekend, another disappointing loss. We somehow lost, 3-2, at Sunderland, a team that fights for relegation every year like Sisyphus rolling his stone up the eternal hill. I believe our performance illuminates a recurring issue of the team under Hiddink. We have no system, no real approach to playing, and thus we have no stability.

The game seemed in hand for much of the first half. After a period of early discomfort and pressure from Sunderland, and an inexplicable yellow card for Gary Cahill, we settled into the game. Diego scored in the 14th minute, and Hazard looked like the Hazard of last season. Fabregas was playing well, we controlled midfield somewhat well, and were limiting Sunderland's chances.

Then, after 5 minutes or so of decent pressure, Sunderland scored just before half. In the minutes after the goal and before half, they pressed us harder and harder, forcing more and more mistakes. They were on the ascendancy, and would surely go into halftime with all the momentum.

But then we hit them once on the counter, Matic took two great touches and finished to make the score 2-1 again. Sunderland lost all the air in their sails, and instead of going into the dressing room pumped, they entered deflated.

We came out and again dominated the early portions of the second half. But they steadily grew in influence, gaining more possession, although they weren't able to get many chances.

Then, just as suddenly as Matic's goal had come, first Borini and then Defoe scored in two minutes, to take the lead. In the 66th minute we were in control, cruising to 3 points. In the 70th we were underdogs, fighting for 1.

For the rest of the game we had little to offer. Sunderland soaked up our pressure, and unsurprisingly (given our complete lack of a coherent counterpress or even just good counterpressing defensive midfielders) were able to get several chances off counter attacks.

The quick ups and downs, ebs and flows, of the game exemplefied a recurring issue of Hiddink's time. We are playing without an identity, without a system. We don't know what we are. We play generic, youth level soccer, with no overall philosophy. Under Carlo Ancelotti, we played attacking, possession based football. Under Mourinho we were defensive, lighting quick on the counter attack. Even Andre Villas Boas, a disastrously bad tenure, tried to install a style of play.

For all of the talk of the "stability" and "calm" Hiddink has brought to the club, in the dressing room and off the field, he has failed to transfer those qualities to the on field product. Chelsea has been anything but stable.

We are prone to massive shifts of momentum in games, both for good and for bad. The match against Tottenham, last week, and the second leg against PSG are also good examples. Against both teams we were locked out of much of the game by superior teams. Their offensive structures allowed them to retain possession well, and when they lost it they were in good shape to counterpress.

We, on the other hand, had a weak defensive shape, with poor access to the ball, and struggled to pressure either team. However, for certain periods of the games, in 5-10 minute stretches, we were able to rachet up the intensity of the game (both homes matches) and put pressure onto the visitors. We pressed in a haphazard and unstructured manner, but, in small doses, it was effective in forcing turnovers and getting us chances on the counter.

But in both matches, PSG and Tottenham regained control after 5-10 minutes, and drained the stadium and team of intensity. They controlled possession for long periods, and gradually forced us back into our half.

In both matches, and against Sunderland, we were at the mercy of the flow of the game. We were passive, allowing the match to take us were it would. We did not establish control over the flow and tempo of the game, like the great teams do.

Barcelona, Bayern, Dortmund, Real and Atleti are all so fantastic and dominating because they dictate how games will be played. They have systems that all the players work in and out of. Some, like Bayern, Dortmund and Barca, control games through possession. Atleti does it through not having the ball, by giving other teams the ball and dictating where they put it.

But all of these teams know what their game plan is, know how they are going to play. We, on the other hand, walk out on the field as a group of 11 individuals. We certainly attack and defend together, but with little idea or structure of how we are going to do that.

Our offensive structure is horrendous; our press is poor and uncoordinated when we use it, which is rare; we cannot counterpress, consistently leaving our backline of old, immobile men vunerable to quick counterattacks.

While Hiddink may have brought calm and stability to the players and club, he hasn't done that to the style of play. I would dare to say, and this is a gutsy statement, that Antonio Conte comes into a worse on field situation now then he would've if he had taken over directly for Jose. At least then the players would have not wasted five months playing bland, meaningless, thoughtless football.